The French e-commerce sector has surpassed 196.4 billion euros in revenue in 2025, according to the Fevad report relayed by KPMG France. The number of transactions is increasing, but the average basket size is declining to 62 euros. For those launching an online business today, these two opposing trends change the game: growth exists, but it rewards models capable of generating recurrence rather than one-off high-value sales.
Declining average basket size and increasing volume: what the numbers imply for a new online business
A market that is growing in volume while reducing unit spending directs economic model choices from the outset. Betting on a single product sold at a high price exposes one more than a catalog designed for recurrence.
| Indicator | 2025 Data (Fevad / KPMG) | Implication for a nascent business |
|---|---|---|
| e-commerce revenue France | 196.4 billion euros | The market remains strong, demand is not weakening |
| Average basket size | 62 euros | Favor bundled offers or subscriptions |
| Transactional trend | More transactions, reduced unit amount | Focus on customer lifetime value rather than one-time purchases |
These data point towards specific mechanics: bundles, subscriptions, upselling after the first purchase. An entrepreneur who structures their offer around recurrence aligns with the real market dynamics, not with the image of a high average ticket that no longer exists.
Several recurring model options are already performing well in the French market, and understanding their mechanisms helps in choosing one that fits your offer. You will also find the mybusinessacademy.fr website in detail to delve deeper into the launch mechanics suited to each type of business.
Agentic commerce: structuring product data for AI assistants
Agentic commerce refers to the ability of AI assistants (chatbots, automated purchasing agents) to select and recommend products on behalf of the consumer. For an e-commerce operator, this shifts part of the visibility: it is no longer just Google that decides, but also a conversational agent that reads your product listings.
The practical consequence is direct. Poorly structured product listings become invisible to AI agents. A vague title, a description without technical attributes, a catalog without standardized categorization prevent the agent from understanding what you are selling.
Specifically, three actions can make a catalog readable by these new intermediaries:
- Use standardized product attributes (weight, dimensions, material, usage) in each listing, not just marketing text
- Structure the data with semantic markup (schema.org Product) so that agents can extract characteristics unambiguously
- Maintain an up-to-date catalog with consistent prices, stock levels, and descriptions between your site and the marketplaces where you are listed
This structuring work is not reserved for large groups. A micro-entrepreneur selling digital or handmade products can apply these principles from launch, with a spreadsheet and a bit of rigor.
Legal obligations of the DSA for small online businesses
The European regulation on digital services (DSA), applicable since February 17, 2024, does not only concern the giants of the web. Every small business operating as an online intermediary must comply with a set of obligations.
If you create a marketplace, even a modest one, or if you host third-party content (reviews, ads, products from partner sellers), the DSA requires you to have a single point of contact for authorities, clear general conditions, and cooperation with national regulators. Marketplaces must also ensure the traceability of professional sellers and inform consumers about their identity.
Some microenterprises and SMEs benefit from exemptions on the heaviest obligations (transparency reports, audits). However, the basic framework applies regardless of size. Ignoring these rules at launch exposes you to sanctions and, more concretely, to a loss of trust from buyers who are increasingly checking the compliance of platforms.
Recurrence and customer lifetime value: concrete levers for developing an online business
The decline in average basket size pushes a rethink of the customer relationship. Rather than seeking to sell at a higher price, the goal becomes to sell more often to the same buyer. Customer lifetime value replaces average basket size as a profitability indicator.
Three mechanics allow for increasing this value without inflating the acquisition budget:
- The bundled offer: combining several products or services at a price slightly lower than the sum of separate purchases, which increases the amount of each transaction
- The subscription or recurring delivery: adapting the frequency to the actual usage of the customer (monthly, quarterly) to reduce the churn rate
- Post-purchase upselling: offering a relevant complement in the hours following the order, when the purchase intent is still active
- Exclusive content reserved for existing customers: tutorials, early access, private community, all of which are levers that foster loyalty without additional advertising costs
These approaches work well for both physical products and training, coaching, or digital services. The challenge is not the nature of the offer, but the ability to transform a first purchase into a lasting relationship.
An online business launched in 2026 operates in a market where the volume of transactions compensates for the decline in average basket size, where AI agents redistribute visibility, and where European regulation imposes a framework from the first euros of revenue. Structuring your catalog for machines, complying with the DSA from the start, and building a model based on recurrence are not optimizations for later: they are the entry conditions.
